The editorial by Maurizio Primanni for the monthly FundsPeople
The new year opens with rapidly evolving scenarios for the world of finance. At the time of writing, Donald Trump has just taken office for the second time at the White House, the war in Israel sees a truce, while the conflict in Ukraine remains unresolved. Europe, to which Italy is closely linked, finds itself in a phase of profound uncertainty, with Germany and France in economic and political difficulty and a complex agenda for the European Commission led by Ursula Von Der Leyen, called upon to respond to the choices of the new US course. However, change is always ambivalent: it represents a challenge, but also an opportunity.
THE MARKET, REVIVAL OF MANAGED SAVINGS
From our observatory, we expect the ECB to continue with a policy of reducing interest rates to stimulate the European economy. This scenario will lead commercial banks and consultancy networks to increasingly orient customers towards managed savings. In this context, advanced financial consultancy will become essential: it will not only be a matter of protecting assets, but of building “holistic” solutions that take into account life expectations, professional/entrepreneurial areas and personal and family desires. New technologies will be crucial, especially in their most advanced forms, such as Artificial Intelligence (AI) and data science. These tools improve operational efficiency and are essential to attract new generations. In a year that is expected to be highly volatile on the financial markets, managed savings, supported by innovative technologies, will represent a fundamental pillar for the financial sector.
BETWEEN PROTECTIONISM AND DISCONTINUITY, THE NEW INTERNATIONAL PANORAMA
The return of Donald Trump to lead the United States will be an element of strong discontinuity. His administration will adopt the MAGA (Make America Great Again) approach, already expressed during the election campaign. Europe will be called upon to react quickly, increasing its competitiveness and strengthening its economic relations with the USA. The strategy on issues such as the environment, labor policies and bilateral relations with China, Russia, the United Kingdom and BRICS countries will have to be reviewed, inevitably influencing the global economic context. In particular, the emphasis on protectionist policies, duties and anti-immigration measures could generate inflation in the United States, pushing the Fed towards further rate hikes. This approach will contrast with the opposing strategies of the ECB, amplifying the divergences between the two sides of the Atlantic.
TECH, DEFENSE AND MADE IN ITALY PRIORITIES FOR THE FUTURE
Figures such as Elon Musk, an integral part of Donald Trump’s team, indicate that the tech sector
will continue to be a fundamental driver for innovation, growth and finance. At a geopolitical level, Europe will be called upon to strengthen its strategic autonomy, not only in the economic sphere. Defense is a growing compact, with the European Union oriented towards greater military cooperation between member states. This will also reflect Trump’s requests for greater economic commitment from NATO allies. Finally, Made in Italy: thanks to the difficulties of France and Germany, Italy could benefit from a more stable government and a more flexible production system to take advantage of the opportunities that will emerge sooner and better. Sectors such as mechanics, fashion and food will have to be taken into consideration. Finally, it will continue to be useful to maintain attention on the energy compact, the war in Ukraine could continue to influence the cost of gas, reinforcing the need to diversify energy sources and invest in alternative solutions.
